John Rapley’s recent column in The Globe and Mail was the kind of piece that doesn’t just inform—it jolts. Titled “Buy gold, sell oil and get building,” it was a timely reminder that the ground beneath Canada’s economic assumptions is shifting fast. It inspired me to take a closer look at the data, the direction of capital flows, and what it all means for a country as tightly tethered to the United States as we are. His core message? The postwar order is fraying, and Canada must act decisively while it still has room to manoeuvre.
Start with gold. For decades, global crises meant a rush to U.S. dollars and treasuries—safe, liquid, reliable. But that rule no longer holds. Despite war and instability in the Middle East, the U.S. dollar is weakening, not strengthening. Meanwhile, gold has quietly gained ground. According to recent IMF data, gold now accounts for roughly 20 per cent of global central bank reserves—up sharply and closing in on the euro’s share. Central banks aren’t just diversifying; they’re hedging against what many see as a weakening global anchor.
This erosion of trust in American assets isn’t random—it’s political. The looming prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency has reintroduced volatility into what was once the most stable country on earth. Investors are nervous, allies are uncertain, and even longstanding U.S. institutions are being tested. Trump’s unpredictability—whether walking out of summits, threatening tariffs, or suggesting defaults—has fundamentally undermined the “safe haven” narrative. If elected again, the consequences could be systemic.
Canada, as a close economic partner of the United States, cannot ignore this. A less predictable U.S. means we must be more self-reliant, more investment-ready, and more competitive. That means shaking off our complacency.
Take oil. In the near term, Canada may benefit from instability in the Middle East and tightening global supply. We are, after all, a reliable, democratic petro-state. But make no mistake: the long-term trend is clear. Global demand for oil is plateauing. China’s oil consumption is forecast to peak by 2027. Emerging markets are increasingly leapfrogging to renewables. Energy transition is no longer hypothetical—it’s accelerating.
So what do we do with our short-term oil windfall? The worst mistake would be to treat it as a return to the past. Instead, Canada should be reinvesting that capital into the industries of the future—clean technology, advanced manufacturing, AI, housing, and infrastructure.
Which brings us to the third, and arguably most urgent, imperative: building.
Canada has a once-in-a-generation opportunity. As U.S. institutions face political strain and investors look for alternatives, our country stands out as a beacon of stability. But that advantage is meaningless if we can’t build. And right now, we’re not building nearly fast enough. We’re bogged down by interprovincial trade barriers, outdated permitting processes, and a regulatory mindset that favours incumbents over innovation.
This inertia is self-inflicted. We’ve created artificial barriers that limit competition and discourage growth. If Canada is serious about capturing this moment—about becoming a true economic leader in the next global order—we must move swiftly to lower those barriers and unleash our productive capacity.
The good news? There’s a growing sense of urgency. As Scotiabank CEO Scott Thomson recently noted in the Financial Times, Canadians are beginning to “coalesce” around the need to unlock our economic potential. That kind of national alignment is rare, and it won’t last forever. We should treat it as a mandate to act.
This is not a time for incrementalism. It’s a time for bold bets, long-term thinking, and unapologetic ambition. We must modernize our economy, rethink our regulatory frameworks, and open up our markets. We must take the signals—gold rising, oil plateauing, capital shifting—and turn them into strategy.
Canada still has time. But time is no longer on our side.